Lines In The Sand

One day after the Cease Fire, Kuwait announced plans to increase oil exports in defiance of OPEC quotas. The price of crude began to slide. In June '89, they stepped up production again. Iraq was hard hit.

[Shakib Outaki – Oil Analyist]
‘For every fall of a dollar in the price of a barrel of oil, Iraq lost a billion dollars in income.’

While Iraq was at war, Kuwait had moved into the Rumailia oil field, shifting a border disputed since colonial times. In November, Kuwaiti officials met with the CIA and agreed:

"…to take advantage of the deteriorating economic situation in Iraq […] To put pressure on that country’s government to delineate our common border. The CIA gave us its’ view of appropriate means of pressure."

As oil prices collapsed, Kuwait demanded that Iraq repay its’ wartime debts.

In December, the United States invaded Panama – without rebuke from the UN Security Council. The Soviet Empire was in chaos, the global ‘pattern of relationships’ changing. US War Plan 1002 – devised to counter a Russian threat in the Gulf - was updated, and now posed Iraq as the enemy.

Early in 1990, General Norman Schwarzkopf briefed congress:

"Middle East oil is the West’s lifeblood. [….] It is going to fuel us when the rest of the world has run dry."

Schwarzkopf advocated a permanent US presence in the Gulf. But in the wake of Soviet collapse, there were calls to cut military spending. New enemies had to be found. A white paper was drawn up which identified Iraq and Saddam Hussein as:

"….the optimum contenders to replace the Warsaw pact."

There was just one problem. According to the US Army War College:

"Baghdad should not be expected to deliberately provoke military confrontations with anyone."

US intelligence indicated that Iraq’s desire was to reduce the army and repay their debts.

But high unemployment made de-mobilisation impossible, inflation on the dinar was forty percent and rising, and the price of oil continued to fall.

In May 1990, Saddam Hussein protested at Kuwait’s continuing overproduction:

"Were it possible we would have endured […] but I say that we have reached a point where we can no longer withstand pressure."

The Kuwaitis were dismissive, as an American official recalled:

"When Iraqis came and said: ‘Can’t you do something about it?’ the Kuwaitis said: ‘Sit on it’. And they didn’t even say it nicely…. they were arrogant...they were terrible."

Charles Allen, the CIA’s ‘Officer for Warning’ predicted that Iraq would invade Kuwait. His report was shelved.

In a diplomatic offensive, Iraq sent envoys to Arab states until Kuwait agreed to a summit. On July 10th new quotas were settled. On the 11th, Kuwait rejected them and announced plans to further increase production by October. Saddam Hussein’s patience was exhausted.

[Dr. Phoebe Marr - US National Defense University]
‘I think he came to believe […] that Kuwait was over-producing oil not in its own interests but because it was goaded into that by the United States, in an effort to weaken Iraq.’

On July 15th, Iraq wrote to the Arab League and the UN Secretary General listing their grievances; on the 17th Saddam Hussein accused Kuwait of economic warfare; on the 18th, troops were sent to the border.

Saddam Hussein summoned US Ambassador Glaspie and asked her to clarify the American position.

"I have direct instructions from the President to seek better relations with Iraq. […] Our opinion is that you should have the opportunity to rebuild your country. But we have no opinion on Arab-Arab conflicts like your border disagreement with Kuwait."

As the crisis escalated, King Hussein of Jordan went to Kuwait to try and broker a compromise, to be told:

"We are not going to respond. If they don't like it, let them occupy our territory. We are going to bring in the Americans."

As Iraqi forces moved to the front line, the Assistant Secretary of State was questioned in Congress:

"If Iraq, for example, charged across the border into Kuwait… [...] in that circumstance, is it correct to say […] that we do not have a treaty commitment which would oblige us to engage US forces?"

"That is correct."

On the 2nd of August, Iraq invaded.